The Volatile Nature of Political Support


Those who follow politics closely note with interest national polling data.  It has been a particularly good year for Democrats with approval of President Bush declining steadily in the face of bad news.  Some Democrats seem to think that all we need to do is stand by and watch the Republicans sink on their own.  Nothing could be further from the truth.

We often wish we could find polling data regarding our own state as we hear the national reports.  Fortunately for us, the website www.SurveyUSA.com provides current polling data for all 50 states.  Use the 50 State Tracking link to the left on the home page to find a list of polls. The Approval Ratings links lead to summaries.  There are tracking charts (click on the state abbreviation in the Tracking Graphs column) that show the change over the past six months.  Clicking on the State name provides demographic results.  Not only does this give us insight into Florida but we can also analyze another state of interest.  Most everyone wants to know "what’s going on at home.”

Of particular interest is what happened to the Bush approval question between November and December during the President’s charm offensive.  Overall, he was effective.  The dismal performance in November showed 37% approval vs. 60% disapproval.  By December, the result had changed to 40% and 57% for a swing of 6%.

However, Florida provided distressing results.  In November, Florida approval had slumped to 37% and disapproval was 61%.  In December, this had eroded to 46% approval and 52% disapproval.  The swing in Florida was 18% in one month!

The Florida swing was the largest of any state.  Arizona, Alabama, Missouri, Virginia, Montana, Illinois, New Jersey, Delaware, and Kansas had swings from15% (AR) to 10% (KS).  Only 11 states continued the trend of equal or lowered approval.

As the SurveyUSA site notes, these changes occurred after just two recent major Bush speeches - 11/30 speech to Naval Academy and 12/7 speech to Council on Foreign Relations.  The survey data was taken before the Bush 12/12 address to Philadelphia World Affairs Council, the Bush 12/14 address to Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars, the 12/15 Iraqi elections, the Bush 12/17 "live" radio address, the Bush 12/18 Prime-Time Oval Office address, and the Bush 12/19 morning press conference.  If the latter events were as effective as the first two, Bush will have stopped his slide.

Demographic results for Florida show surprising changes.  Male support went from 39% to 52%.  Approval by voters 18-34 years old went from 36% to 49%.  Hispanic support went from 32% to 46%.  Bush got an 8% gain from both Republicans and Democrats while Independents gave a 10% gain.  Those who describe themselves as moderate increased their support by 16%.  Interestingly, there was a 3% drop in conservative support.  Even pro-choice voters increased support from 27% to 36%.

In conclusion, this suggests political commitment is fragile at best.  When a change this sharp can result from such limited actions as the ones which seem to have led to this change, think how much people can be moved by a full-scale, full-time extended offensive.  Democrats have to do more than just pointing an accusing finger to win elections.  We need to sell ideas and a program.

- Jim Watson - January 9, 2006